Cal Poly
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
23  Laura Hollander SO 19:30
267  Diana George SR 20:32
294  Ashley Windsor FR 20:36
332  Mary Jo Wright FR 20:42
442  Sara Van Dyke SO 20:51
475  Ashley Bergstrom SO 20:54
505  Rachel Bush SO 20:57
695  Erika Schaeffer SR 21:13
1,109  Michelle Read SO 21:40
1,296  Hanna Edwards JR 21:52
National Rank #31 of 340
West Region Rank #8 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 10.8%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 3.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 9.8%
Top 10 in Regional 92.1%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Laura Hollander Diana George Ashley Windsor Mary Jo Wright Sara Van Dyke Ashley Bergstrom Rachel Bush Erika Schaeffer Michelle Read Hanna Edwards
Sacremento State Inter-Regional Jamboree 10/04 952 20:51 20:43 20:37 20:49 20:56 21:14 21:44 21:51
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 883 20:23 20:36 20:36 20:57 20:54 21:29 21:36
Big West Championships 11/02 632 19:06 20:19 20:37 21:00 20:40 21:06 20:32 20:50
West Region Championships 11/15 771 19:31 20:40 20:47 20:45 21:02 20:48 21:31
NCAA Championship 11/23 19:58





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 10.8% 22.5 539 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1
Region Championship 100% 7.7 239 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 6.4 16.8 22.3 19.6 14.6 9.1 4.8 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Laura Hollander 98.4% 26.9 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1
Diana George 10.8% 146.8
Ashley Windsor 10.8% 158.5
Mary Jo Wright 10.8% 176.8
Sara Van Dyke 10.8% 199.2
Ashley Bergstrom 10.8% 204.1
Rachel Bush 10.8% 209.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Laura Hollander 6.8 1.8 3.4 6.2 8.3 10.4 11.2 10.5 9.9 8.4 8.9 6.9 4.2 3.0 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Diana George 50.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Ashley Windsor 54.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Mary Jo Wright 60.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Sara Van Dyke 71.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ashley Bergstrom 74.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rachel Bush 79.2 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 1
2 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 2
3 0.8% 89.5% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3
4 2.4% 75.4% 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.8 4
5 6.4% 53.6% 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 3.0 3.4 5
6 16.8% 22.9% 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.1 12.9 3.8 6
7 22.3% 3.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 21.4 0.8 7
8 19.6% 19.6 8
9 14.6% 0.1% 0.0 14.6 0.0 9
10 9.1% 9.1 10
11 4.8% 4.8 11
12 1.9% 1.9 12
13 0.9% 0.9 13
14 0.2% 0.2 14
15 0.1% 0.1 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 10.8% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.5 0.2 89.2 0.3 10.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
SMU 33.5% 1.0 0.3
Baylor 3.8% 1.0 0.0
UTSA 2.6% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.4% 1.0 0.0
UC Davis 0.3% 2.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0